Redpoint Instability Forecasting Tool
See Volatility Building, 14 Days Out.
RIFT is Redpoint's instability forecasting platform. It turns expert-curated local reporting and on-the-ground signals into 14-day forecasts of conflict and protest activity, an assessment of current instability, and the evidence behind every number.
Speak with an advisorBuilt for people who cannot afford
to be surprised.
RIFT is early warning for teams operating where conditions change fast. It brings forecasts, current conditions, news signals, thematic reporting, and targeted research into one workspace, so you can act before a disruption.
Navigate frontier markets
Enter, hold, or exit with confidence, using a forward view of the instability that moves your positions.
Understand your global risk profile
See every market your company operates in on one consistent scale.
Protect your people
Monitor risk to global workforces, personnel, and students, with time to adjust travel and posture.
Deepen geopolitical understanding
Go beyond the score to the developments driving and mitigating risk in each country.
Built by the people
who did this for a living.
RIFT was built by former U.S. intelligence, national security, and open-source experts with decades of experience collecting, analyzing, and operating in frontier markets. Its models have been developed, refined, and externally validated over the past decade, and are re-tested every week against what actually happened, so model drift is caught early. As new data sources and countries come online, the models are refined further.
Forecast. Understand.
Act.
Forecast
Get ahead of risk with 14-day Conflict and Protest Forecasts. Read the absolute level and the four-week trend together, alongside Current Instability for what is happening today.
Understand
Go deep into what is driving and mitigating risk. Browse Signals for individual developments, listen to tailored audio summaries, and read weekly Reports that organize events into themes.
Act
Ask Discovery a focused question about a country or topic. RIFT retrieves the relevant material and assembles an analysis with supporting references to help you act.
Five questions.
One workspace.
Start with what’s happening now, look ahead to what’s coming, then work down to the evidence.
- 01Current InstabilityWhat are my global blind spots?Today’s most severe crises, conflicts, and civil unrest, with the dimensions driving each country.
- 02ForecastWhat disruptions are coming next?Conflict and Protest Forecasts flag unusual spikes in activity over the next 14 days.
- 03SignalsWhat is driving this?Individual news items and developments, sortable by trending, relevance, or recency.
- 04ReportsWhat is the bigger picture?Periodic summaries that organize developments into themes, with geographic and temporal context.
- 05DiscoveryWhat does the evidence say?Targeted, referenced analysis that answers your own question.
Local knowledge,
at machine scale.
High-quality data in allows high-quality analysis out. Every model runs on a rolling weekly dataset that is curated, not scraped.
The data
Read by people who live there.
- Curated · Traditional media, selected by local experts and validated by Redpoint’s open-source network using NATO-standard reliability grading.
- Augmented · A curated, continuously evaluated set of community sentiment sources from social media, adding relevance and timeliness.
The models
Three models, run weekly.
- Current Instability · How unstable a country is today. A composite of civil unrest, armed conflict events, and institutional stress, for navigating ongoing disruption.
- Conflict Forecast · Likelihood of an unusual increase in conflict-related events over the next 14 days: skirmishes, terrorist actions, sustained armed combat, civil war, and asymmetric security events. It excludes criminal violence and is not the probability of a mass-casualty event.
- Protest Forecast · Likelihood of an unusual increase in protest-related activity over the next 14 days: localized unrest, national strikes, mass mobilization, insurrection, and attempted coups.
See the next two weeks.
Speak with an advisor about coverage, models, and access for your organization.
Contact an advisorForecasts, not predictions. RIFT produces forecasts: statements of the likelihood of a defined increase in activity over a defined period. They are not predictions that any event will or will not occur, and they are an input to professional judgment, not a substitute for it.
Likelihood, not severity. Conflict and Protest Forecasts measure the likelihood of an unusual increase in event activity relative to a country’s three-year baseline. They do not measure how damaging any event would be. The Conflict Forecast excludes criminal violence and should not be read as the probability of a mass-casualty event.
Coverage varies. Coverage and freshness vary by country and source. Missing information does not mean low risk. Country summaries may include both stabilizing and destabilizing developments, and an event’s presence in a summary does not by itself explain its contribution to a score.
Verify before acting. Users should check dates, sources, and units before relying on any result. Stated accuracy reflects historical model performance and does not guarantee future results. RIFT does not provide legal, financial, investment, or security advice.